Who will win the ’08 US election and why…

Last week, during the Global Leadership Forum I attended, Prof James Thurber of American University presented a speech (or was it a polemic?) on the likely outcome of the current US election. He suggested that, regardless of the outcome, this would be an election that would end the Age of Reaganism. It would be realigning election, he argued, not unlike the 1968 election in which Richard Nixon was elected, ending the Democratic realignment initiated by Franklin Roosevelt in 1932.

In ’68, Thurber noted, the United States faced an energy crisis, an unpopular war and was shocked by high profile assassinations and race riots. In 2008, the United States faces an energy crisis, is involved in an unpopular war (or two) and is in an economic recession.

You could say that, in the current context, all the ingredients are there for (significant?) political change.

Now I suppose it may be important to preface Thurber’s prediction by pointing to his political affiliation – he’s a Democrat – but the case he presents is nonetheless compelling (if slightly partisan). Barack Obama, he says, is charismatic (and I think the implication, then, is that John McCain is not), has been working the ‘ground war’ (vigorously canvassing at the grassroots level to get pro-Obama voters registered) and also has been winning the ‘air war’ (having raised enough money to out-advertise McCain on television and radio by at least 4-to-1). Thurber also reckons the status of the economy is in Obama’s favour: when the economy goes bad, elections go to Democrats. ‘Dems make things better,’ the saying goes.

Where Obama has clearly outweighed McCain, though, is in money. Abandoning traditional methods of attracting funding in favour new media and social networking tools, Obama has simply has generated more money than McCain, giving him the freedom to spread his message more diversely and/or concentrate it in those contested states where he needs to campaign more vigorously. McCain simply has not been able to compete. Obama, you could say, has had the money to buy greater popularity.

But it doesn’t end there; other signs, too, support Thurber’s prediction: (1) Democrats have a 34-seat advantage in the House of Representatives, (2) one third of eligible voters who will cast their votes will do so before November 4th (early indications are that the Democrats are ahead), and (3) although Obama has experienced a slight dip in popularity according to recent polls, most surveys put him well ahead of McCain.

So there you have it: Thurber believes it, and indeed key indicators point to an Obama victory. The question is: What about the Bradley Effect?

Go Terps!

This blog has suffered through neglect of late. And it's not because I have run out of experiences or ideas (quite the opposite in fact). It's just that I haven't had the time for quiet reflection and recollection. I've been wanting to write about the US presidential race, my research ideas and my record collecting experiences, among other things. But with a rash of course assignments over the last two to three weeks and the recent passing of Ma Bartes, it's been difficult to find the head space to blog.

Until this weekend - that is - when I attended my first American football match (the University of Maryland Terrapins v Wake Forest) at Chevy Chase Bank Field/Byrd Stadium on campus. Well, when I say attended, I mean it in a general sense. I actually was working sound for a broadcast company, Raycom, which covered the match (see me holding the parabolic microphone to capture on-field sound). It was pretty mindless 'scud work', but at least it afforded me the opportunity to see the action as close-up as you can without being in the middle of a scrimmage. And I'll be pocketing $75 for my efforts!

I have to admit to being a little overwhelmed by this sporting experience. I figured it was a college game; it would draw a modest crowd. No way! Approximately 45 000 spectators turned out for this fixture. That's way more than usually turn out for international cricket fixtures in South Africa.

But the high attendance is only the tip of the iceberg in these events. In the build-up to the kick-off the Maryland band and cheerleaders (easily in excess of a couple of hundred members) rang in the game with marches, music and acrobatic moves that aren't really my thing. So dramatic was this build-up, I expected the second coming. I can only imagine what happens in preparation for NFL games...

Of course the match was about more than the on-field play (although Maryland performed well to rout Wake Forest 26-0). There also seemed to be an endless stream of sponsored competitions and special events, adding to and heightening the sense of spectacle.

When administrators and commentators speak of the need to professonalise (i.e. commercialise) sport in South Africa, I now understand what they mean and what they're aspiring to.

Statue of (compromised) Liberty

This weekend (from Friday night to Monday afternoon) I took in a whirlwind tour of New York City. I managed to pack as many activities as possible into the three full days I was able to spend there, but one of the experiences which stood out most for me was a visit to the islands Liberty and Ellis.

The day started at the pier at Battery Park, where my friends (Ruth, Danilo and Saeeda) and I caught the ferry. It was a pleasant enough scene. It was a mild and slightly overcast day (perhaps a bit on the chilly side), but this did not deter the throngs of tourists, souvenir sellers and quirks from coming out.

We negotiated the long ferry queue and then found ourselves at a security check which I can only liken to the kind one finds at international airports. There were uniformed security staff, metal detectors, scanners, and a generally tense environment - not what I had expected before embarking on this bit of tourist activity. Belts, watches, wallets, cellphones, cameras all had to come off or out and be placed in containers for scanning before we could board the ferry.

Honestly, I felt as if I was going through immigration... again.

Once through, though, calm was restored and the trip across the Hudson was as stunning as could be imagined, with the Manhattan skyline behind us and the towering figure of the Statue of Liberty approaching.

Because we were among the lucky two thousand visitors permitted on the day to see the Statue of Liberty from the top of its pedestal, we made our way to the museum entrance, only to be greeting by a long, snaking queue. My aching feet, which had done more than the Surgeon General's recommended 10 000 steps the previous day, were beginning to curse me. But together we soldiered on, only to arrive at a second security check-point - even more hi-tech and intimidating than the last. There were uniformed security staff, metal detectors, scanners, automatic frisking devices and, yes, a generally tense environment. Again the belts, watches, wallets, cellphones and cameras came off.

I had just been subjected to two thorough and quite invasive inspections and I hadn't yet been able to see the Statue of Liberty. So much for promoting the values of liberty and (the) freedom (of movement). I think the irony is obvious without my having to state it.

The anxieties of post-September 11 America have been well documented. But I feel as if, this weekend, I came face to face with the obsessive paranoia and control which have come to characterize this empire in decline. Perhaps the belt really is coming off.

P.S. The Statue of Liberty is a sight worth seeing and the experience did move me. It's just that it also exposed, in quite powerful ways, the potholes - no, craters - in the Land of the Free.

P.P.S. I also have not dedicated enough time to a discussion of Ellis Island, which is deserving of more attention. The island was home to the US's federal immigration station for 62 years in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. It was the first point of contact for the mostly European immigrants who came to the US during the period 1892 - 1954. Today, the Ellis Island museum provide a service to the descendants of those immigrants who to trace their family history. Being here moved me in a way that was quite different from being on Liberty Island. It struck me that there, on the island, was evidence of a tangibly documented past (descendants can find actual scans of their ancestors' papers), but at the same time there are millions of Americans (descendants of slaves and indentured labourers) who may have no record of their ancestry at the time of immigration.